DATE:           Friday, September 16, 2005

 

THE AFTER LABOR DAY “RUSH’

 

Since Labor Day, here in Richmond, one would almost think the General Assembly had gone back into full session.  There seems to be no less than two or three committee or subcommittee meetings per day.  Then when there aren’t any “official” legislative meetings, one of the statewide candidates is holding a press conference or a group is listening to presentations by political analysts or the candidates themselves.  So the hot summer months have passed and the “cool fall days” (why it’s only close to 88 degrees today) and the political season are upon us. 

 

STATE’S REVENUE STILL LOOKS VERY STRONG

 

On Monday, Sept. 19, the Secretary of Finance or his representative will share with the House Appropriations Committee his report on the Revenue Data for August and for Year to Date.  Unofficial preliminary collection figures indicate the state’s tax stream is still very strong.  August’s tax receipts could be 14% above those collected last year.  The year-to-date figures may be a little less, but in the double digit range. 

One must remember the tax package passed in the extended ’04 GA session did not take effect until September, so the collection of these taxes did not hit the revenue stream until September of last year and had no real impact until October.  The sales taxes paid the retailers in September were not transmitted to the state treasury until October. 

Despite this comparison of “apples” to “oranges,” the first two months of FY 06, it would certainly appear, were good ones for the Commonwealth in the terms of tax collections.  We can give you a better idea of just how well after we see the Secretary’s report and hear the answers the Administration gives to the potential tough questions from the skeptical House Appropriations Committee members!

 

THE POLITICS DOES HEAT UP SOME

 

The gubernatorial candidates are becoming much more visible since Labor Day.  Both of the major party candidates are running multiple TV ads and are having more public appearances.  All of the candidates were at the kick off Labor Day parade in Buena Vista.  Then last week there were the unusual debates in Northern Virginia.  Republican Jerry Kilgore and Democrat Tim Kaine debated (they were actually face to face, I understand!) before the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce.  Independent (or as some media calls him The Independent-Republican candidate) Russ Potts and Kaine had an after hours debate in a “much smaller room” in the afternoon.  Reporters who covered the debates felt Tim Kaine “won” both.  From discussions with the media folks (not from their actual published reports) the degree of success by the Democrat candidate varied.  In the first, as one print reporter noted, “Jerry got his head handed to him on a platter!”  On the other occasion this same reporter said, “Well, Potts sort of held his own, but he doesn’t have much of a chance and Tim seemed to have a better debate style.”

The problem, as with all of these types of “debates” this early in the campaign season, is that people outside of the sponsoring organizations are just not that interested.  Only cable TV covered them to any extent and there will be some rebroadcasts later, but how many people watch Cable TV on a regular basis?  The Print media did a good job of covering these “confrontations.”  However, with Katrina stealing the big headlines the stories did not get real good place in the major dailies.  So the impact of these “debates” will be minimal. 

All three candidates did appear before the “higher education community” in a forum sponsored by the Virginia Business Higher Education Council and Virginia 21 (an organization of college students interested in being politically active). The event held Wednesday at VCU was relatively well attended. The media stayed through all three separate presentations and the follow up Q & A periods.  Of the two major party candidates, the consensus again was Tim Kaine did the better job of answering the questions and being “gubernatorial.”

Russ Potts, speaking in the afternoon after a fair number of people had left, did a much better job than either of the others in stirring the crowd.  His fiery style of speaking and his straight forward comments on the issues resulted several times in spontaneous applause from the audience.  He was the only one of the candidates to receive a standing ovation at the end of his presentation.  The student members of the audience, in particular, responded very positively to his closing statements.  If Russ had the organization and the manpower to activate these campus activists, his campaign could possibly pick up some much needed momentum. 

 

TRANSPORTATION

 

The legislative “watchers” still are predicting transportation will be the hot topic of the 2006 General Assembly session.  This feeling is still prevalent despite the major statewide candidates trying to stay away from discussing it too often. 

The State Senators continue to focus on the broad transportation problems including mass transit, ports, air and highways.  The Senate Finance Subcommittee on Transportation meets on Tuesday morning in the GAB and the START group convenes at 1:30 pm that afternoon at the VCU Commons.  The Full Senate Finance Committee will travel to The Tidewater area on Wednesday for a two and a half day “let’s see what’s going on in this part of the state” trip. 

On this past Monday, Russ Potts unveiled a comprehensive plan for “Better Transportation For a Better Virginia.”  Calling Virginia’s transportation crisis “…among the worst in the nation…” he emphasized the need for an infusion into the system of $2.0 billion new dollars per year “…in sustainable transportation funding.”  He stressed the cost of congestion in Virginia is costing our economy over $3 billion per year and starting to fix the problem is estimated at $2 billion, or a cost per day per licensed driver of only $1.03 (Less than the cost of a soft drink or of a bottle of water, he noted as he held up one of each.)

Russ listed all of the “critical corridors and areas” in the highway system which needed immediate attention.  He included regional and local airport facilities and ports in the list.  His plan would be to call a special session on transportation 120 days after the inauguration (shades of Governor Jerry Baliles).  He would encourage the Assembly to adopt a strategic vision and said he would put on the table all potential sources of new revenue. He listed a number of them including a gas-guzzler sales tax, an income tax increase for Virginians with adjusted gross incomes over $100,000 per year, an increase in the tobacco tax, a sales tax increase of 1%, a motor vehicles sales tax, and the creation of tolls on major interstates.  The Public-Private Partnerships would also play a big role in his plan as would totally private road projects.

The Potts position emphasizes, “The Governor must lead Virginia out of the transportation crisis.”  He indicated his plan could accomplish this type of leadership.  “I don’t care who gets the credit,” he stated several times.  “If the Senate or the House Committees come up with better plans, so be it.  But we must start now and the Potts Administration is ready to get to work!”  He chided both of his opponents for not having any viable plan. 

One of the things which Potts has stated on a number of occasions, but which has not taken hold in the campaign is, “I hate taxes, but I love Virginia More.”

It is unlikely, in my opinion; that his Transportation Plan will get much publicity. It is too complicated for the media to explain easily.  He and his staff will have to get it down to a simpler presentation before it will begin to resonate to the general public.  Those close to the transportation problems—the business community, the trucking industry, the maritime people—will applaud it and may endorse it.  To make it effective, however, I feel he must get it across to those stuck in traffic in Northern  Virginia during the morning and evening rush hours; to those waiting three hours to come back through the Hampton Roads tunnel on a Sunday evening; those fighting the truck traffic on I-81 and I-95; those on crowded two-lane primary roads; and those bumping along on rough unpaved secondary roads.  With a war chest less than 10% of that of his opponents, it is very doubtful this message can be gotten across to the citizens who would respond with a vote. 

 

Links to Previous Giesen Perspectives:

Aug. 26, 2005 Aug. 19, 2005 July 7, 2005 June 8, 2005 May 27, 2005 April 7, 2005 March 10, 2005 February 21, 2005 February 14, 2005 February 8, 2005 January 31, 2005 January 15, 2005 December 23, 2004 November 19, 2004