The Hon. A. R. Pete Giesen, Jr.

THE LEGISLATIVE RACES

It seems that all of the newspapers, political blogs, radio commentators, even the national media outlets are concentrating on the surprising outcome of the results of yesterday’s Democratic Primary in the Governor’s race.  So I’ll start this GP by giving you the results of the Legislative contests.  This GP summary will also give you a “score card” on how “yours truly” did in predicting these races.  Please keep your copy of the  last GP close for easy reference!

District 11 — Roanoke City and the town of Vinton
In this Democratic race, as predicted, the incumbent, Onzlee Ware, easily held off his challenger, Martin Jeffrey, garnering 68.5% of the 2740 votes cast.  Only 6.3% of the active voters participated in this district’s primary.  My prediction for the primary was correct (Score 1 to 0) — now we’ll see if it holds up for the general election.

District 17 — Part of the counties of Roanoke and Botetourt and Part of the City of Roanoke
The 3,181 Republicans who voted in this district yesterday represented 6.095% of the active registered voters and nominated Bill H. Cleaveland to carry the GOP banner in the November general election.  As I noted in my last GP, political observers in the District claimed this race was close, but was Michael Wray’s to lose.  He did just that.  In fact, he ran third, getting 19.27% of the vote while Cleaveland received 893 votes or 28.07%.  Chris Head placed second in the five way contest getting 24.17% of the votes (769).

You might observe from the last GP that money isn’t always  an avenue to victory in political elections.  The Governor’s race is an example, as is this one.  Head spent over $46,000 while Cleaveland expended less than $14,000.

Missed on this race badly — Score now 1-1.

District 23 — City of Lynchburg and part of Amherst County
For this Republican primary the turnout was slightly better than in District 17.  Almost 8% of the voters came to the polls yesterday and selected T. Scott Garrett, MD to go against Democrat Delegate Shannon Valentine in November.  Dr. Garrett received 2126 votes or 54.02% of the 3,935 cast.

This one turned out as forecast — score 2-1.

District 25 — Part of Albemarle, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties and the City of Waynesboro
Optometrist Greg Marrow swamped his opponent, James G. Noel, getting 66.67% of the 1,983 votes cast.  The vote turnout in this strong Republican District was just under 4% and doesn’t bode well for Democrat Marrow in the general election.  Here the clear favorite won the primary as predicted — score 3-1!

District 35 — Central Fairfax County — Vienna and Oakton area
As indicated, “the clear leader” did prevail in this Democratic Primary.  Mark Keam garnered 55.14% of the votes cast in this four way race.  The 6,623 citizens who cast their votes yesterday represented over 11% of the voters, a better turnout than in most areas.

Another correct prediction — score 4-1.  Now will my crystal ball hold up in November where I have forecasted the winner of this primary will be elected to the House of Delegates over the Republican nominee, James Hyland.

District 38 — Part of Fairfax County — central northeast portion bordering Falls Church
Many people argue in favor of term limits for legislators because “that’s the only way to make changes.”  The opponents of such restrictions maintain that the voters can make that decision every election.  The voters made that decision in this district yesterday.  Incumbent Robert Hull, a member of the House since 1993, was defeated by 66 votes in this Democratic Primary.  Kaye Kory received 50.65% of the 5,004 votes cast (12.34% of the registered/active voters).

Since this primary election was “the election,” my prediction that Hull would return to the General Assembly in January was misguided and incorrect.  Ms. L. Kaye Kory will represent the 38th District in 2010.

With this bad prediction the score moves to 4-2.

District 47 — The central part of Arlington County
As noted often in the last GP, forecasting the outcome of multi-candidate primaries is always risky.  In this five way Democratic primary, however, my reliance on the wisdom of several of the incumbent legislators in the area proved accurate.  Patricia A. Hope, mustered 36.6% of the 8,047 votes cast and will represent the district when the General Assembly convenes in January.

My score is now 5-2.

The turnout of 14.46% of the registered active voters was the best of the legislative races.  This election does point out one of the downsides to these “off-year” (odd year) primary elections.  Ms. Hope received 36.6% of the votes cast BUT that only represents 5.3% of the citizens who are registered to vote and a much lower percent of the adult population of the district.  She will be their delegate for the next two years.

District 52 — Part of Prince Williams Co., Towns of Dumfries and Quantico
With only 5.345% of the voters putting in an appearance yesterday, it is difficult to judge the vote-getting strength of the Rev. Luke E. Torian in this normally Republican district.  He proved a good candidate yesterday.  As predicted, he won handily, garnering 1,811 votes.  This represented 68.15% of the votes cast.

This correct forecast brings my score to 6-2.

District 55 — Part of Hanover County and the Town of Ashland
This “tantamount-to-election Republican Primary” resulted in the predicted election of John A. Cox to succeed Frank Hargrove as the Republican Delegate from the 55th District.  John received 46.33% of the vote in “a tight three way race”.  It actually turned out to be a tight “two way” race.   “Rusty” McGuire got 43.08% of the vote losing to Cox by only 232 votes out of 7,126 votes cast.  This represented a turnout of 13.17% much less than some forecasted for this hotly contested race.

My score is getting better.  It stands at 7 correct predictions and 2 misses.

District 69 — Part of the County of Chesterfield and part of the City of Richmond
Another race which had been forecasted as a “tight three way race.”  In the end it came down to a good close two way contest.  The Democratic member of the Richmond City School Board proved her ability to get sufficient votes from Chesterfield County to get elected.  Betsy B. Carr with 1714 votes won an 88 vote victory over attorney Carlos M. Brown.  Ms. Carr carried Richmond with a 126 vote margin while Mr. Brown received a 37 vote edge in Chesterfield.

This district just didn’t go “according to hoyle.”  Multi-candidate primaries are volatile and I just missed this one.  Mark that scorebook at 7-3.

District 80 — Contains parts of the Cities of Chesapeake, Norfolk and Portsmouth
Nearly 14% of the voters participated in this Democratic Primary and decided they didn’t want to send Mr. Smith to Richmond.  Instead, they determined by 45.23% of their votes (2,652) that Mr. Matthew James should represent the Democratic Party in the November general election.  Since this district has a distinctive Democratic leaning, he also will represent the district in Richmond in January.

This was another prediction which went astray.  Now my score drops to 7-4!

District 90 — Parts of the Cities of Norfolk, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach
Another district where the incumbent was challenged for the nomination.  In this case, however, unlike in the 38th District, the voters apparently felt the incumbent, Delegate Algie Howell, was doing a good job and they rewarded him with 69.6% of their votes.  Like it was predicted, this was as close to a “sure thing” as one of these primary elections could be.

Well, at least this one pulled up my average.  Score is now 8 right and 4 missed!

THE STATEWIDE PRIMARY RACES

You will note in the last GP that yours truly fearlessly forecasted if certain thing happened “then the Bath County native may very well pull off the upset he just barely missed in 2005.”  Oh my, did I like most of the other political “experts” in Virginia and the nation miss in calculating the strength of the home grown, rural candidate for Governor.  While Creigh Deeds’ win didn’t surprise me, the margin of his victory, however, was a different matter.

Most of the polls and most of the political prognosticators sensed that Creigh was gaining momentum in the last two weeks of the campaign.  The odds were still long and many felt the saturation ads from the McAuliffe campaign would offset Deeds surge.  The final outcome reminded me of the Kentucky Derby.  Mine That Bird was last going into the home stretch but with a burst of speed this 50 to 1 long shot hugged the rail and won by six lengths.  Well, a 49.71% to 26.45% win on Creigh Deeds’ part might well be considered at least a comparable six-length win!

The results of this Democratic Primary gave the “political experts” several big surprises.

•    One: the voter turnout had been forecasted to be between 3.5 and 5% of the registered/active voters.  The total percentage of voters, 6.457%, while still a “light turnout” was almost 20% more than most “experts” anticipated.
•    Two: these same “political experts” stressed that a low turnout would help the Deeds campaign.
•    Three: in a statewide race of this magnitude, even in a primary, a candidate couldn’t possibly win spending less than either one of his opponents and only about half of what the “frontrunner was spending.”  The Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) as of this morning (Jun. 10) showed that the campaigns had reported spending the following:  Deeds, $2,310,125; McAuliffe, $5,776,922; and Moran, $3,089,332.

Robert Creigh Deeds confounded all of the odds makers and unofficially captured 49.71% (159,204) of the higher than expected votes cast (320,258), besting McAuliffe by almost 75,000 votes and Moran by over 83,000.  Even more pertinent is that he carried ten of the eleven congressional districts.  He only lost the Third Congressional District, where the popular Congressman Bobby Scott endorsed McAuliffe about two weeks ago.  Even in that area, Creigh succeeded in getting 36.35% of the votes to Terry’s 38.69%.

And what about those Northern Virginia, vote-rich Congressional Districts?  Deeds carried them all:  the Eighth with 42.94% of the vote (that’s the district from which Brian Moran’s brother is the elected Congressman), the Tenth with 51.22% (this district stretches over into the Valley), and the Eleventh with 49.70%.  The NBC First Read e-mail this morning (June 10) had some thoughts about this entitled Virginia Gubernatorial Primary.  Chuck Todd, the NBC News Political Director, noted about the D.C. voters, “…these voters, …tend to gravitate to the candidate they think is most electable.  And since 2001, that usually means picking someone who has appeal to voters OUTSIDE of Northern Virginia.”

These thoughts from NBC have validity, however. In my opinion the endorsement of the only candidate not from Northern Virginia by the Washington Post certainly helped Creigh Deeds build the momentum for his stretch drive.  In addition, as a number of citizens “on the street” noted to political observers, “Creigh Deeds’ ads make him appear to be a genuine straight shooter.  The other two candidates just come across as ‘too slick’.”

Those areas where Creigh was expected to “do well” were even “better than expected.”  For instance, the Fifth Congressional District (from Charlottesville south Winchester), and the Ninth District (Southwest Virginia — Roanoke to Bristol to the Cumberland Gap) all gave the Bath County State Senator better than 68% of their votes.  (The Sixth topped the list with 69.88%.  A few exceptional units:  Bath County (hometown) 96.38% of the vote; Allegany (where he practices law) 96.65% and Highland County (also practiced law in this the Virginia county with the smallest population) 97.09%.  While these are all small voting jurisdictions, their vote turnout was some of the highest in the state with nearly 25% in Bath, over 22% in Highland and almost 17% in Allegany.  Deeds “hometown folks” certainly like him!

FOR THE LT. GOVERNOR — NO SURPRISE HERE!

Jody Wagner, as predicted by almost everyone except maybe the Signer campaign, won her race going away.  She captured 212,832 votes (74.31%) and swept every congressional district.  She does add geographical balance to the Deeds ticket with her base in Virginia Beach.

Stephen Shannon as the Attorney General Nominee from Fairfax County gives this ticket a better balance than that of the Republicans.

Just think it is only four months, three and a half weeks until the general election.

The Hon. A. R. Pete Giesen, Jr.

THE STATEWIDE RACES — VIRGINIA IN THE SPOTLIGHT
There is some interest in New Jersey, but most of the national attention is on Virginia!

SOME HISTORY

Virginia’s system of elections every year and “The Short Ballot” concept installed by Harry F. Byrd has its advantages and disadvantages.  On the downside is the fact it is very difficult to keep the public interested in political activities at the state level year after year.  This is particularly true when the nation and the political organizations have just been through an energetic, extensive, exhaustingly well publicized year and a half campaign for President.  Throw in the U.S. Congressional and Senatorial races that go hand in hand with the national elections, the local precinct workers are ready for a rest and the public has “turned itself off” from political rhetoric and advertising.

On the upside is the fact the two states that elect their governors during the “off years” (Virginia and New Jersey) get an uncommon amount of attention from the national media and the national parties.  Those who do become active in the “uneven-year state elections” are not distracted by a long list of candidates and can give greater concentration to the candidates they support.

Historically, Virginia having off-year state elections “protected” the “Conservative Democratic Candidates” from “The National Liberal Democratic” Party’s propositions during the campaigns.  This was the real reason the system was adopted, probably shortly after the Civil War.  The date of elections is set by statute.  It is not in the constitution, and without a great deal of research, it has been difficult to determine when this was instituted in our Commonwealth.

This difference between the state and national Democrats was not as significant in 1969 when the Democrat-dominated General Assembly reviewed and revised the work of the Constitutional Commission appointed by Gov. Godwin.  There were still enough of the “old guard” in the Assembly that the possibility of a change to have state elections constitutionally coincide with national elections received little or no attention.  Interestingly, neither the Commission members nor members of the General Assembly received any public pressure to change the election dates.  There were many requests and insistences to change some of the election laws, but very little to change the timing of elections.

So, is the state “benefiting” from this timing of our state elections?  Take a look below at the financing of the statewide races as an indication of how the advertising industry may be helped by our uniqueness in this year’s primary and general election.

THE REPUBLICANS SELECT THEIR CANDIDATES BY CONVENTION

The Republicans nominated their ticket Saturday (May 30th) at the State GOP Convention in Richmond.  There were no surprises — Bob McDonnell was unopposed to be the candidate for Governor; Bill Bolling easily won the nomination to run for his second term as Lt. Governor; and, as “conventional wisdom” had predicted, State Senator Ken Cuccinelli won a first ballot victory to run on the ticket as the Attorney General nominee.

In the weeks prior to the Republican Convention, the State Democrat Party had a problem.  Their resources and organizations were committed to the June 9 primary (only one week away, mind you) when their nominees would be selected.

What to do?  The three Democratic Candidates seeking a victory in the primary to represent their party in the November general election were tending to get nasty with each other.  Each one needs to solidify the core Democrat voters who will likely vote on the ninth.  So would Bob McDonnell get a “free ride” prior to the primary?  To the rescue comes the National Democratic Governors Association (DGA)!  Since they wanted to stay out of the primary contest for the nomination, they set up a new committee that registered as a “State PAC” called Common Sense Virginia with a Springfield, VA P.O. Box address.  The only funds raised by this PAC have come from the DGA and almost all of the $2,954,500 has gone into television advertising denouncing Bob McDonnell’s claims to be the future “jobs governor of Virginia.”

To counter this expenditure by the DGA, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has contributed some $1,950,000.00 to Bob McDonnell.  This contribution, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, gave the McDonnell for Governor Committee a total amount raised of over $7.2 million, with an unspent balance of $4.9 million as of May 27.  Interestingly, McDonnell has been running positive TV ads and has not, as yet, answered the Democrat ads attacking his opposition to the unemployment compensation portion of the federal stimulus package.  Following the June 9 primary, I suspect the gloves may come off!

THE DEMOCRAT GOVERNOR’S PRIMARY

In one week, the media (thankfully) will begin to talk about the general election and the pundits will take a day or so to analyze the outcome of the Democrat Primary.  With all of the money being used to boost the revenue of advertising — agency designs, productions, space and time purchases in the media, etc. — you know everyone in the Commonwealth is aware of the candidates names, what positions each of them has on the issues, and how they will govern. Or are they?   Talk to the “man in the street” and you’d be very surprised how little interest there seems to be in this primary.

In 2008, there was a tremendous turn out for the “presidential preference primary” of over 980,000 Virginia voters.  However, that was a year ago when, in the words of Curtis Gana (an American University professor and the director of the Center for Study of the American Electorate) “…the passion (of 2008) was driven by the anti-Bush sentiment and the outpouring of support for Obama.”  Those forces are not with us this year, and as far as one can tell, the candidates have not stirred the passions of the average Democratic voters for “an outpouring of support” for any of the three.

In the 2001 Democrat Primary for Lt. Governor, less than 165,000 people voted.  This turn out was just about 4% of the 4,108,000 registered voters.  Tim Kaine won the nomination with just over 64,000 votes or 39.66% of the votes cast, but less than 2% of the registered voters.  There are now over 5 million registered voters in Virginia, thanks principally to the surge in young and black registrants last year.  The big question is: “Will these new voters turn out for the June 9 primary?”  Most political pundits are very doubtful.

Looking at the three Democrat aspirants to the executive mansion, we find some real personal contrasts.  The present “front runner,” Terry McAuliffe, moved to Virginia 20 years ago and lives in Fairfax County where he and his wife are raising five children.  He is an entrepreneur and has worked in banking, homebuilding and has even run a law firm.  He has also been chairman of the Democrat National Committee and was Finance Chairman for the Hillary for President Campaign. Terry pushes that he can bring jobs to Virginia!

In seeking the nomination for the governor’s race, as of May 27 he had raised as much money as both of his opponents combined — $6,964,442.  Only 29.8% of those funds had been contributed by citizens and/or business firms based in Virginia.  McAuliffe’s biggest contributor has been the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME).  This one labor union alone has given over $567,000 to Terry’s campaign.  As of a week ago, the campaign was still showing $1,187,521 in the bank ready for the last week’s push.  There is still a general election coming up for the winner of the primary.

Brian J. Moran, a native of Natick, MA, also came to Virginia 20 years ago when he accepted the job as clerk for the Arlington County courts following the receipt of his J.D. from Catholic University.  He represented the 46th House of Delegates District (part of Alexandria, where he lives, and part of Fairfax County) from 1996 until early this year when he resigned to commit his full attention to running for Governor.  Brian, who served as the House Minority Caucus Chairman during both Mark Warner’s and Tim Kaine’s governorships, states that he is the best suited to “…continue what they started.”

Brian claims to have statewide support and in the spring started an “Economic Recovery Tour” which did take him to all parts of the state.  Brian’s campaign, however, hasn’t apparently taken advantage of “his great deal of support from all parts of the state.”  While 90% of the $3,796,567 campaign funds raised are from Virginia donors, over 70% of these contributions come from Northern Virginia.  His largest contributor is his brother’s (Cong. Jim Moran) House of Representative campaign fund ($125,000).

State Senator Creigh Deeds, has his headquarters in Charlottesville, but is a native of Bath County.  He is fighting “an up hill battle” against his two opponents from the populous NOVA.  Creigh has been in this position before.  You may recall he was waging an uphill fight for Attorney General in 2005 against the current Republican nominee for Governor.  None of the media or the political observers gave the Bath County attorney much of a chance.  While McDonnell emerged the winner, it was by the thinnest of margins.  Creigh lost by 323 votes or a margin of .01%.  One can speculate that if some of the 1800 plus write-in votes had thought Creigh could win the outcome might have been different.

Creigh, the only native Virginian in this primary race, is trailing in the fund raising category — on May 27 he had reported raising “only” $2,832,064 and had “only” $521,955 on hand.  On the May 27 report he had only one real large contributor, Sarah E. McWilliams from Millboro, VA (that is a little community in Bath County, for all of our Eastern and Northern Virginia readers).  In a three year period, Sarah has given “her Senator” $237,000.  The Senator’s strength in his fund raising, however, is his statewide appeal.  He has received 93.5% of his funds from Virginia citizens and business firms located in 70% of the counties and cities of the Commonwealth.

Creigh appears to be applying his dollars to get his message to the areas of the state where he is strongest — the Southwest, the Valley, Southside, and Central Virginia.  The media buys are, of course, less costly than in NOVA and his messages have all been positive.  Like all of the other statewide candidates, his main theme is “the biggest need of the citizens of the Commonwealth is jobs!”

What will be the outcome of this three way race?  Of course, if I knew for sure, I’d take out a second mortgage on my house and be off to Las Vegas.  You must remember primary elections are notoriously volatile affairs and as noted the turn out for this election next Tuesday will probably be very light.

Two events last week have made even the most certain political observers much less certain.  Low and behold the Washington Post, with two urbanite candidates from NOVA in the race, endorsed the rural native, Robert Creigh Deeds.  Since then Creigh has received the endorsements of the only other two newspapers that have given endorsements in the primary — the Martinsville and Bristol papers.

In the meantime, Brian Moran’s campaign is doing all it can to discredit Terry McAuliffe.  Now if these two Northern Virginians beat up on each other sufficiently to discourage their respective supporters, and the turnout in NOVA is smaller than expected, and the turnouts in the rural parts of the state are more substantial, then the Bath county native may very well pull off the upset he just barely missed in 2005.

UNDER THE RADAR SCREEN — The “Down-ticket” Statewide Candidates

For those Democrats who go to the polls next Tuesday, many may be surprised that there are other races than that for the nomination of their candidate for Governor.  The two aspirants for Lt. Governor have had real difficulty getting any media coverage and their fight for advertising space has been limited by their “lack of funds.”  There have been forums and debates (very lightly attended according to “reliable” sources).  The candidates have been hard pressed to get the potential June 9 voters to focus on their race.  The “high-profile, high-dollar, well-publicized, (if anyone is listening?) three-way contest for the gubernatorial nomination has taken up all of the attention and pushed the campaigns of Jody Wagner and Michael Signer under the radar screen.”

The clear front-runner in this contest is Governor Kaine’s former Secretary of Finance, Jody Wagner. This 53 year old Virginia Beach resident has seven years of experience in Virginia’s Executive Branch.  In addition to her service with Gov. Kaine, she was State Treasurer in Gov. Mark Warner’s administration. A lawyer by education but an entrepreneur at heart (Jody runs her own gourmet popcorn business), Ms. Wagner has received the endorsement of 49 of the 66 Democrat legislators and that of former Delegate and now Mayor of Richmond Dwight C. Jones.

Michael Signer is also a lawyer by education (UVA) and served as deputy counsel to Mark Warner during his term as Governor.  Perhaps Signer’s most dramatic contribution to the Democrat Party was being the senior strategist in Tom Perriello’s successful campaign in defeating U.S. Representative Virgil Goode, Jr. in the 5th Congressional District last November.

The contribution picture also points to a Wagner victory.  Obviously using contacts made while their candidate was Secretary of Finance, the Wagner campaign has raised slightly over $1.1 million, with about a third of that coming into their coffers during April and May of this year.  Signer and his staff are having a tougher time securing funds.  His reports as of May 27 showed a total of $391,109 received with about $142,000 garnered since April 1.

Most of the pundits predict the frontrunner will win this “under the radar screen” race.  As stated, however, primaries can be very unpredictable.  It well may depend who each of the gubernatorial campaigns feel would strengthen the Democratic ticket in the general election.  While none of the candidates will make any statement about the Lt. Governor’s race, the words might be passed down to the local unit workers.

For instance, wouldn’t a ticket headed by a Bath County native who represents the Charlottesville area in the State Senate be geographically stronger if the “down-card” candidates came from Va. Beach and Fairfax County?  How about with Fairfax residents for Governor and Attorney General — then does a Va. Beach resident or a Charlottesville resident add the greatest strength to the ticked?  Or does geography matter at all?  Isn’t it “exciting” to speculate on these factors?
Gender will win out, Jody Wagner will be nominated—my fearless prediction!

In the Attorney General’s “race” the voters won’t have to do any pondering.  Delegate Stephen C. Shannon (35th District, Central Fairfax County — Vienna, Oakton, etc.) is the only candidate and has already been certified by the Virginia State Board of Elections as the Democrat Party’s nominee.  Steve is, as they say,
“keeping his powder dry and saving his funds for the general election.”  His name will not be on the ballot on June 9.

NOW FOR THE OTHER PRIMARY RACES — THE HOUSE OF DELEGATES

The registered citizens who lean toward being Democrats in eight House Districts may be aware they will have an opportunity to select their nominee to run for Delegate come June 9.  In three districts, those who lean toward being Republican will make the selection for their nominees.  Local media may have alerted the voters to these opportunities, but there seems to have been scant coverage of these races, even within most of the districts involved.  My bet is the voter turn-out for most of these legislative primaries will probably be no higher than 5% of the registered voters.

Most of the information on these races has reached people through mailings, yard signs, and the door-to-door and phone work of the candidates and their supporters.  Mass advertising has just become too expensive for legislative campaigns. The turn outs may be in direct proportion to how hard the candidates worked and how much shoe leather they burned up.  These are important selections since the outcomes in the general election will decide which party will control the House of Delegates for the next two years and the redistricting process.

The figures given below are taken from the Virginia Public Access Project website unless otherwise noted.  The campaigns reported to the State Board of Elections on June 1 for transactions thru May 27.

District 11  (Roanoke City and the Town of Vinton).
Democratic Primary — Incumbent Delegate Onzlee Ware, seeking his fourth term, is being challenged for the nomination by Martin D. “MJ” Jeffrey.  The dollar figures would indicate the incumbent is not in any danger.  Ware had $15,342 on hand on May 27 and had raised a total of $69,477.  The challenger still had $475 of the total of $4,455 that his campaign had received.  The winner will face the certified Republican candidate, Troy Bird, in November.  This is a solid Democrat District which I fearlessly predict Onzlee will continue to represent in 2010.

District 17  (Part of Roanoke & Botetourt counties, part of the Roanoke city)
Republican Primary — Delegate William H. Fralin, Jr. indicated he needed to spend more time with his family business and his family and decided not to run for re-election to his fourth term.  William is V. P. and General Counsel to Medical Facilities of America.

This is a fairly solid Republican District and five GOP faithful decided they would like to be a delegate.  The result is one of the few Republican primaries in the state.  The candidates and the financial resources their campaigns have garnered and have available for the stretch run are:
Bill H Cleveland — Attorney in Botetourt County
Raised: $24,979; balance: $14,388.
Chris Head — Businessman, Owner (with wife) Home Instead Senior Care
Raised: $53,106 (includes a loan of $35,001); balance: $6,669.
Josh C. Johnson — Attorney (construction), Active in Roanoke City GOP
Raised: $41,053; balance: $15,897.
Melvin E. Williams — Attorney (Litigation), Also a part-time pastor
Raised: $12,801; balance: $324.
Michael A. “Mike” Wray — Accountant with Norfolk Southern R.R (Retiring this year), former member of the Roanoke County Board of Supervisors, (the only candidate who has held an elected office).  His Magisterial District is contained fully in the 17th District and has the bulk of the voting strength.)
NO FINANCIAL REPORT ON VPAP.

The political observers in the Roanoke Valley have indicated this is Wray’s race to loose.  At this writing yours, truly couldn’t make contact with his campaign office to check on how they were filing their campaign expense reports.

The winner of this primary will face the Democratic nominee, Gwendolyn W. Mason.  The District is basically Republican, so one might say “winning the primary is tantamount to election” (just like the Democrat primaries used to be in the days of the Byrd Machine!), but Ms. Mason is very popular in the city and viewed by many in the county as a problem solving member of city council so, we will have to see.

District 23  (City of Lynchburg and part of Amherst County)
Republican Primary — Incumbent Democratic Delegate Shannon R. Valentine has already been certified as her party’s nominee for re-election.  Shannon first won the 23rd seat with 57.5% of the vote in a special election held on Jan. 10, 2006 after Republican Delegate Preston Bryant resigned and accepted the post of Secretary of Natural Resources in Gov. Tim Kaine’s cabinet.  Delegate Valentine had no opposition in her re-election bid in 2007.

This year will be different.  Two Republicans are seeking the party’s nomination in the June 9 primary.  T. Scott Garrett, MD, Surgeon, raised $86,303 including a $20,000 loan from the candidate and had a balance of $14,563 on May 27.  Jeff S. Helgeson, Financial Consultant, raised: $43,178; balance of $3,092.

A reliable source indicated both candidates have “been hitting the pavement” but the retired Dr. has bested his opponent in the advertising/direct mailing portions of the campaign.  While anything can happen in a primary with a predicted small turnout, the “smart money” is on Dr. Garrett being a strong nominee to challenge the incumbent in November.  This should be a race to watch in the general election.

District 25  (Part of Albemarle, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties and the City of Waynesboro)
Democratic Primary — Two brave souls are seeking the Democratic nomination to run in one of the most Republican Districts in the state (I should know, I helped make it that way.  Remember Augusta and Rockingham Counties even gave Jim Gilmore a majority of their votes in his race for the U.S. Senate!)

James G. Noel, a resident of the small Augusta County community of Mt. Sidney, hasn’t made much of a splash during his primary campaign. His resources have been limited.  Raised: $648; balance: $277.  The other, more active and more aggressive Democratic candidate, Optometrist Greg J. Marrow of McGaheysville (a small community in Rockingham County) is the clear favorite to tackle Steve Landes in the November election.  Greg has raised $9,103 but has overspent his collections by $272.

As noted, whichever Democrat wins will have an uphill battle as their own websites indicate; however, it will be the first time Delegate Landes has had a serious opponent since he was first elected in 1995.  Nineteen ninety-five was the year yours truly retired.  Also, there is infighting within the Augusta County Republican Committee which could cause problems for Steve.  Nonetheless, this District should still be represented by Delegate Landes after the November election.

District 35  (Central Fairfax County—Vienna and Oakton area)
Democratic Primary — In this district, four Democrats are vying to run for the seat vacated by Stephen C. Shannon when he became the Democrat nominee for Attorney General.

A brief assessment:
Roy J. Baldwin — Attorney
Raised: $116,552 (includes $38,000 he loaned the campaign); balance: $50,089
John F. Carroll — Attorney
Raised: $55,508; balance: $16,646.
Mark L. Keam — Attorney
Raised: $193,848; balance: $30,615.
Esam S. Omeish — Surgeon
Raised: $141,234 (including a $45,000 loan he made to the campaign.); balance; $33,513.

Mark Keam appears to be the leader.  He has secured the endorsements from such NOVA Democrat powerhouses as Congressman Gerry Connally, former chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisor, and Sharon Bulova, the current Board Chair.  Six incumbent NOVA Delegates have also given their supportive endorsements.  It is unusual for such office holders to give endorsements in a primary contest.  These elected officials must know the “lay of the land” as does the Washington Post,  which gave its editorial support to Keam last week.

This use to be considered a Republican leaning district, but now is generally listed as a safe Democratic haven.  The certified Republican candidate, James E. Hyland, will have to get all of the breaks in the general election to beat the winner of this Democratic primary.

District 38  (Part of Fairfax County — central northeast portion bordering Falls Church)
Democratic Primary — Seventeen year incumbent Delegate Robert Hull is being challenged by a member of the Fairfax County School Board in this years primary.  Incumbency is a strong factor in Virginia, so it is doubtful that L. Kaye Kory will be successful in her endeavor, but she is giving Delegate Hull a real battle.  She reported having raised $71,451 as of May 27, but $25,029 of that amount came from her previous successful race for the Fairfax County School Board. Ms. Kory had $24,947 on hand for the last push from May 27 to June 9.

In the meantime, Delegate Hull has amassed over $95,000 in contributions, although he only had a balance of $1,627 on May 27.  Bob knows, however, that this is THE election in this district (no Republican has qualified to run in the Nov. election), so there is no reason to hold back funds at this stage.  The bet from this corner is that Bob Hull will continue to represent the 38th District in 2010.

District 47  (The central part of Arlington County)
Democratic Primary — This district represents an open seat due to the decision of Delegate Al Eisenberg to retire after this term.  This is a solid Democratic strong hold.  Winning the primary is definitely “tantamount to election.”  No Republican has been certified so one of the five contestants in this primary will be a delegate come January.

The candidates:
Miles F. Grant — An employee of the National Wildlife Federation.
Raised: $21,685 (including a personal loan of $2,500 and a personal contribution of $5,535); balance: $7,662.
Andres Tobar — The President of the Virginia Coalition of Latino Organizations
Raised: $32,022 (only $500 from his own pocket); balance: $9,088.
Patrick A. Hope — An attorney who is an Adjunct Professor at John Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health and is Director of Legislative Policy at the American College of Cardiology
Raised: $35,447; balance: $16,286.
Alan E. Howze — Former Policy Director in Gov. Mark Warner’s Administration
Raised: $65,421; balance: $10,060.
Adam J. Parkhomenko — Most recently an analyst for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (from 2003-2008 an aide to Hillary Clinton)
Raised: $70,023; balance; $8,395.

The field is an interesting mixture of activists who want to go to Richmond and represent a very solid Democratic District.  All seem to have their supporters.  The Arlington County Democratic Party Chairman has endorsed Tobar.  Delegate Bob Brink and State Senator Mary Margaret Whipple have endorsed Hope.  Not surprisingly, former President Bill Clinton has stepped in and endorsed his wife’s former aide, Adam Parkhomenko, who is also the front-runner in campaign dollars collected.  Our junior U.S. Senator, Mark Warner, has strongly endorsed his former Policy Director, Alan Howze.  Miles Grant, as expected, has been endorsed by the Sierra Club and most of the environmental groups in Arlington.  As stated earlier, the winner of this primary goes to the General Assembly.

This one is considered by most observers as “too close to call.”  As always in a five way race the campaign which has the best “get out the vote” effort will probably pull it off.  In this case, I’d bet on the candidate who has the support of the current legislators, only because these are the people who know how to win at this level of politics.  Keep a sharp eye on Patrick Hope.

District 52  (Part of Prince Williams Co., Towns of Dumfries and Quantico)
Democratic Primary — Present Republican Delegate Jeffrey M. Frederick is not running for re-election after his brief and controversial stent as Virginia Republican Party Chairman.

There are two Democrats seeking their party’s nomination.  Again relying on the financial figures, The Rev. Luke E. Torian, a pastor from Woodbridge, appears to be way ahead of attorney Michael A. Hodge for the nomination.  Torian’s campaign still had $27,596 on hand when it made its June 1 report and had already spent $47,053, mostly on mailings and campaign literature.  Hodge on the other hand had only $1,788 to spend in the last week-and-a-half of the campaign and had only spent $11,422 to date.  That kind of mismatch in resources has to make a difference.  My pick then is Rev. Torian.

The Republicans have already certified their candidate to take Jeff’s place (no it’s not his wife, who withdrew after the State Central Committee ousted Jeff as Chairman).  Rafael Lopez will try to keep this seat in the Republican column.  It will be difficult.  This is now considered by many political watchers as a swing district.  This will bear a close watch as we get into the fall.

District 55  (Part of Hanover County and the Town of Ashland)
Republican Primary — Del. Frank Hargrove, at 82 years of age and after 27 years in the House of Delegates, is retiring.  Frank’s “retirement” makes this an “open seat,” but like several other districts this one is such a “rock hard Republican District” that no Democrat has stepped forward to challenge the winner of this Republican Primary.

The candidates:
John A. Cox — Semi-retired Businessman, owner of Cox Trucking Co.
Raised: $117,708 (includes a loan to the campaign from Cox of $26,800); balance: $23,141.
Jerry F. Burch, Jr. — Retired regular Navy Officer and businessman
Raised: $19,697; balance $432.
R. E. “Rusty” McGuire — Attorney and Retired Army Reserve Major
Raised: $60,790; balance: $2,971.

Despite his large lead in raising money, supporters of John Cox still expect “a very close race.”  Jerry Burch apparently has been doing extensive door to door campaigning to offset his lack of money for mailings and pass outs.  “Rusty” McQuire’s campaign is working under a handicap since their candidate is the Deputy Prosecutor in Louisa County and thus works “out of the district.”  In a three way race where all of the candidates are “nice guys and good Republicans” the vote may surprise everybody, but my pick is the long time Ashland resident with a well financed campaign and a solid business reputation in the county, John Cox.  Like some of the other districts, this Republican Primary is “tantamount to election” (can you tell, I like that expression!)

District 69  (Part of the County of Chesterfield and part of the City of Richmond)
Democratic Primary — The senior Democratic Delegate in terms of years served, Frank Hall, resigned his seat earlier this year to take a position as one of the three Commissioners who manage the ABC Board.  This resignation created another “open seat” which may be a swing district in November.

The three Democrats vying for the nomination are:
Betsy B. Carr — A member of the Richmond City School Board
Raised: $26,383; balance: $12, 113.
Carlos M. Brown — Attorney with Dominion Virginia Power (lost a Democratic Primary race in Dec., ’08 for the nomination to run in a special election in District 70; Delores L. McQuinn won easily).
Raised: $69,330 (includes $8,634 loan from the candidate); balance: $3,634.
Antione M. Green — President of the Richmond Crusade of Voters
This Campaign has no filed financial reports

From all indications, both in fund raising and in organization, Carlos M. Brown may finally get to run in a general election for the General Assembly.  Betsy Carr’s School Board District covers part of this legislative district, but not enough to give her the edge in name recognition.  It appears Attorney Brown is the best bet to go against the certified Republican Candidate, Ernesto Sampson.  While normally a Democrat leaning district, Sampson is an energetic campaigner.  This district will bear watching closely during the fall.

District 80  (Contains parts of the Cities of Chesapeake, Norfolk and Portsmouth)
Democratic Primary — An open seat developed in this District when Delegate Kenneth R. Melvin resigned his seat this spring and was appointed by the Governor to the Circuit Court of Portsmouth.  Three Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination to run against Jennifer Lee the only certified Republican candidate.

For the June 9 primary, the candidates are:
Matthew James — President and CEO of the Peninsula Council for Workforce Development with an MBA from Northwestern University, according to the candidates website (couldn’t reach the candidate’s office by “press time”).
Raised: $16,596; balance: $4,557.
Elijah “Buddy” Sharp, III — Holds a JD Degree but is now a teacher in the Suffolk School System after teaching Political Science at Elizabeth State University in N.C.
Financial Report “is in the mail.”
Doug L. Smith — Economic Development Consultant, Member of Portsmouth City Council serving his first term
Raised: $47,175.50: balance “not enough.” (Information hasn’t been posted by VPAP as of this writing.  This information is from the candidate’s campaign.)

As in most of these three way primaries, the predictions are “it will be a very tight race.”  Both candidates with whom I spoke gave the indication they just didn’t know! However City Councilman Smith has the best financed campaign and a fair amount of his Council District is included in the Legislative District. The turn out in the Norfolk and Chesapeake portions of the District may offset this advantage, but it appears “Mr. Smith may go to Richmond”.  As noted, the winner will have Republican opposition in the general election, but this is a relatively strong Democratic District.

District 90  (Parts of the Cities of Norfolk, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach)
Democratic Primary — This may be considered a “spite primary.”  The incumbent, Del. Algie T. Howell, Jr., is being challenged for his party’s nomination by Lionell Spruill, Jr., the son of Delegate Lionell Spruill, Sr.  There is some speculation among the Capitol watchers that this contest is about leadership in the House of Delegates’ Black Caucus now, that both Ken Melvin and Dwight Jones have moved on to other positions.

Algie has represented this District since 2004 and now serves on the Appropriations Committee.  Lionell Sr. has served in the House from the adjacent 77th District since 1994, and was on the Appropriations Committee prior to 2008 when Algie was appointed to the “powerful money committee” and Lionell was moved to the Rules Committee.  The Rules Committee is an important committee, but it doesn’t decide who gets the money!

Here’s how it stacks up:
Delegate Algie Howell — Educator and businessman
Raised $51,248 and carried over $13,606 from past election cycles for a total war chest of $64,954; balance: $45,642.
Lionell Spruill, Jr. — Student Activities Coordinator at Norfolk State U,
Raised: $7,085; balance: -$145,

If there is such a thing in primary elections as “a sure thing” this election comes as close to that as possible.  The incumbent will win by a landslide and have a very good financial balance with which to run against Republican Jason Call in the General Election.

That’s the line up.  Sorry for the length of this one, but wanted to give all of the GP readers a more in-depth look-see than most of our citizens will have.

(Some late breaking dollar figures from VPAP’s list of “large pre-election contribution.”  Since the May 27 reports for Governor:  Terry McAuliffe’s campaign has reported receipts in this category of $348,700; Brian Moran’s campaign, $104,800; and Creigh Deeds’ campaign, $165,000.  Of real interest to the local and state officials may be the additional $61,200 given to McAuliffe by the AFSCME’s union!)