The STATE SENATE of VIRGINIA—20/20—Does That Refer to Their Vision?
THE FIRST DAY — ORGANIZATION
When Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling raps the gavel and calls the State Senate of Virginia to order a week from today, he will view a chamber with twenty members elected under the Democrat label and twenty under the Republican banner. After the swearing-in of all of the members, the body will “organize.”
At that point in time, all of the maneuverings which have intrigued the political pundits since the Nov. 8 elections will come to a point and decisions will be made “officially.”
Shortly after the results of the November election were known, our Republican Governor and Lt. Governor let it be known that the Republicans now controlled the State Senate. As noted, the actual membership of the Senate is even, twenty from each party. However, the Executive Branch maintained the GOP would organize that body with the deciding vote of the presiding officer, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling.
This pronouncement did not come from any of the Republican legislative leaders. Nonetheless, it was generally conceded by the media that the top leadership of the party was making the statements and must have the concurrence of the legislative leadership. The Senate Democratic leadership did not keep quiet like their Republican brethren. They immediately cried “foul.” The Lt. Gov. is not a member of the Senate and while the Virginia Constitution allows the presiding officer to vote in the case of a tie, this is only on legislative votes, not on the vote to organize the body.
The organization vote, of course, determines which party will have the majority leadership positions, the chairmen of the committees, and the majority vote on each of the committees. So the party that organizes the body, obviously has an advantage in getting its (and in this case the Governor’s) legislation passed. That is, of course, if (and often this can be IF) all of the party members adhere to the party line and vote according to the wishes of the party leadership and particularly according to the wishes of that Executive on “the third floor.” (You know that’s where the Governor hangs out when he is in the Capitol!)
The Democrat Leaders (now taking a much different position than they did in 1996 when the Senate membership was also split 20/20 and Democrat Don Beyer was Lt. Gov.) determined that perhaps, in fact, most likely, the Republican State Senate Leaders were going to “go along” with the position of the Governor. Richmond Senator Don McEachin filed a legal suit in the Richmond court requesting the Court to issue an injunction against the Lt. Gov. This injunction, if granted, would prevent the Lt. Gov. from voting on the resolution to organize the Senate.
As you may be aware, we do have three branches of government in Virginia, and usually the judiciary is reluctant to take a position when it comes to the operation of one of the other branches. So, from a layman’s standpoint, the court saw an out, and ruled that the Lt. Gov. had taken no action, therefore, there was nothing on which to rule.
As of yesterday, January 3, the Lt. Gov. issued a memo to all of the Members of the State Senate and State Senators’ Elect indicating his extensive Constitutional and legal research on the issue of the responsibilities of the Office of the Lieutenant Governor when it comes to presiding over the Senate and breaking tie votes. In essence, our current Lt. Gov. concludes the VA Constitution states in several places where votes in the Senate must pass by a “majority of the membership” vote.
Article V, Section 14, which defines the duties of the Lt. Gov. simply states that this member of the Executive Branch “… shall be President of the Senate but shall have no vote except in the case of an equal division.” Since in other areas of the Constitution the language above (a majority of the membership) is inserted for votes on such matters as budget and tax legislation, the Lt. Gov. concludes that on other matters (including organization resolutions) he has the responsibility to cast a vote if there is “an equal division.”
So now we can expect the Senate to be organized on Wednesday, January 11 under the Republicans. There may be some “negotiations” by the members to curry some favor from some of the Senior Democrats. Since with the Lt. Governor’s interpretation of the Constitution (with which he admittedly received help from some knowledgeable sources—probably A. E. Dick Howard of the University of Virginia the acknowledged expert on Virginia’s Constitutions and the person who served as the Executive Director of the 1969 Commission on the Constitutions, which wrote the first version of the document adopted by the citizens of Virginia in 1971) regardng the budget, the 20 Democrats in the Senate can stop practically any initiative the Governor or any other Republican force attempts if it required money, should they can stick together on floor votes requiring 21 votes of the elected members of the Senate.
ADDITIONAL LEGAL ACTIONS
Once the Lt. Gov. takes his intended action, then the Democrats will push their law suit requesting the courts to “officially” resolve the issue of whether this non-member of the Senate can vote on the organization of the body.
If the courts were to put this on a rocket-docket, the case could be decided prior to any real actions being taken by the session of your General Assembly. However, with the past reluctance of the judiciary to get involved or even make a ruling on the organization of the Legislature (not only in Virginia, but in all the other states as well), it should be expected any judge hearing the case will agree with the interpretation of the Lt. Gov.
20/20 VISION? SOME PAST HISTORY
In 1996, when the Democrats had a similar situation, then Democrat Virgil Goode, refused to go along with his leaderships’ plan to organize the State Senate under the Democrat’s banner, and forced a “power-sharing” plan which lasted for two years. There does not seem to be any member of the GOP delegation that is ready to take that kind of stand as far as the 2012 Session is concerned.
Several noted former legislators—former Senator and Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, John Chichester, and former Democrat State Senator and Republican Congressman, Virgil Goode—have encouraged the Republicans to take a similar position at this juncture of history. They both lived under the power-sharing arrangement and felt it worked for the betterment of the Commonwealth. Is this the 20/20 vision that might be in the best long range interest of the Republican controlled legislature AND Virginia as whole? Or will the total control of the state government by the Republicans result in a more co-operative, better run state?
History will tell the full story. Past history, tells us however, that one-party domination of a government, doesn’t always bring “better, more responsive government!
AND FOR THE GOVERNOR
Under this scenario, the Republicans will be in “complete control” of the state government. So the legislative process will go very smoothly in Virginia, won’t it? Don’t bet on it. There is still the “other two party system” in this state (as in most others) — The House vs. The Senate! Governor McDonnell, with his high public rating, may be able to keep peace between the bodies for the full 60 days of this session, but it will be a real challenge to his leadership skills.
Bob’s ability to focus on this intra-party struggle and his legislation will further be tested because of the presidential election this year. He has a good staff, but he also has a lot of “distractions” with his rising prominence in the national picture. If you don’t think that kind of situation isn’t distracting, ask a few former Virginia governors who kept their vision split between what was happening in the Commonwealth and across the Potomac. To keep the “ship of state steady and on course” those in leadership roles need to have 20/20 vision for the present AND the future, preferably with a definite focus on what’s best for the Commonwealth.
SECOND: Where were you on this date (November 22nd) 48 years ago?
NOW THE ELECTIONS
FIRST: The House of Delegates
Most of you have read all about the results. You know the House Republican Caucus for the upcoming session will have … Well, now let’s see, yours truly has read three articles in the print media in the last three days with three different numbers. One article indicated the GOP had won 66 seats in the more numerous body. Another stated there were 67 Republican Delegates coming to Richmond in January and a writer quoted The Speaker as bragging his caucus “… would have 68 members in January—the largest number of Republican members in the history of Virginia.”
After carefully counting the votes listed on the Virginia Board of Elections website, the report stating that there will be 67 Republicans coming to the Capitol in January is correct. Those who indicated there were 66 GOP winners on Nov. 8 were apparently waiting to see what would happen in the 87th District where the Republican candidate, David Ramada with 49.92% of the vote led his opponent, Democrat Mike Kondratrick (45.45%) by a reported 51 votes. The small margin was well within the percentage which would allow Kondratrick to challenge the outcome and request a recount. This did not happen, the Democrat apparently took the advice of his campaign manager and conceded.
So Ramada’s victory gives the GOP caucus 67 members. (A GP note: the Nov. 3 edition predicted this Muslin candidate “…with the clear endorsement of his Methodist wife, and the active support of the Republican hierarchy, will win this seat…but it’s going to be close.” BUT admittedly, yours truly didn’t think it would be quite this close.)
Now for The Speaker’s feeling that the GOP has a 68 member caucus, he may be correct. The 68th member is Independent Lacey Putney, who comes back for his 51st and 52nd years in the House of Delegates. Lacey has been caucusing with the Republicans and will likely do so again this year … although in the redistricting process, his legislative Republican “friends” didn’t do him any favors; nor did the local Republican Committees in his new district. Jerry R. Johnson ran as a Republican and garnered 31.73% of the votes while the Democrat candidate, Lewis B. Medlin, Jr. picked up 25.56%.
These “party candidates” prevented Lacey from returning to the House with a majority vote for the first time in fifty years. He received just 41.61% of the 21,346 votes cast. The campaign with three active candidates did produce one of the highest turnouts in any district in the state with almost 42% of the voters coming to the polls. Despite this adverse experience regarding Lacey’s “GOP colleagues,” The Speaker figures the second longest serving legislator in the country will continue to be a part of the Republican Caucus. The smart money thinking is “Lacey likes being chairman of the House Appropriations Committee and therefore will act as much like a member of the majority as he possibly can despite his Independence designation in the election.
After all of the smoke has cleared the official numbers will be 67 Republicans, 32 Democrats and 1 Independent!
As you are aware, the Minority Floor Leader of the 2011 House of Delegates, Democrat Ward Armstrong, was defeated by GOP junior incumbent (first elected in 2007), Charlie Poindexter in the redrawn 9th District. Poindexter received 52.61% of the 25,066 votes cast in the most expensive house race this year and probably in the history of the Commonwealth. Ward spent $1,105,763 in a losing cause while Charles managed to win with an expenditure of only $949,447. So the biggest spender doesn’t always win the day in politics. The good news to all of this expenditure of dollars is over 50% of the voters in this district did come out and vote. That was the highest turnout of any of the 100 districts.
The new House Minority Floor Leader will be delegate David J. Toscano from Charlottesville (the 57th District). He doesn’t have the experience that Ward had, nor is he quite as caustic in his speaking and debating style on the floor. However, the impression of the GP is he will probably be a better organizer and may coordinate floor debates better than Ward did. This former Mayor of Charlottesville was first elected in 2005 to replace the retiring delegate Mitch VanYahres, who also had served as Mayor of Charlottesville.
Confession is good for the soul—at least that is what some wise man said a few centuries ago. Well, your GP editor confesses I missed a couple of my forecasts. The Republican redistricting plan was just better than I calculated, or maybe the dissatisfaction with Washington was stronger than I figured. Regardless of the factors, the GOP won two more seats in the House than I forecasted. The rest of the confession is that my students who were following certain races as part of their “Practical Politics in Virginia” course did a better job of forecasting than did their “Professor Pete.”
SECOND: THE SENATE OF VIRGINIA—a divided house!
The Democrats in the State Senate obviously didn’t do quite as good a job in redrawing the Senate districts as did the Republicans in the House if your criteria was to keep your majority; which, realizing the political nature of our redistricting system in Virginia, that is exactly the criteria the majorities in both houses tried to achieve.
As predicted, 28 year veteran Democrat Senator Edd Houck lost his bid for an eighth term to Republican Bryce Reeves in a very close race. The 226 vote margin was within the margin that would have allowed a recount. In fact, the margin on election night was less than a 100 vote, but with Reeves picking up votes in the counting of the provisional votes and then the official vote canvas showing the increased margin, Houck decided against a recount and graciously conceded.
My student assigned to follow this race also picked Reeves to win with the astute observation that Houck’s margin of victory had decreased in every race from the one before.
The second seat the Republicans picked up to gain their 20/20 tie in the smaller house was the 20th District where incumbent Democrat Roscoe Reynolds ran against the Freshman Republican incumbent, who was elected in a special election held on Jan. 11 of this year to represent the 19th Senate District. There was a third candidate, Jeff Evans, who was running as an Independent, but was formerly a member of the Republican Party. Yours truly thought Edwards would be a spoiler for Stanley. This didn’t prove to be true.
Evans polled 3,887 votes or 7.58% of the total cast. However, the votes he picked up didn’t appear to hurt Stanley as much as anticipated. Bill Stanley received 46.8% while Reynolds only garnered 45.54%. More than a percentage point separated the two leaders thus there wasn’t even a consideration of requesting a recount.
The races which surprised yours truly were the 21st — where Republican Delegate David Nutter was challenging incumbent Democrat State Senator John Edwards; the 19th — where incumbent Ralph Smith was challenged by former Republican State Senator Brandon Bell running as an Independent Republican: and, the new 22nd district — with former Democrat Lynchburg Mayor Bert Dodson against the Republican Primary winner Tom Garrett.
In the 21st, Edwards succeeded in getting out the Democratic vote in Roanoke City in substantial numbers and beat Nutter 55.85% to 43.97%. Then in the 19th all of the help that the Democratic state leaders funneled into Bell’s campaign didn’t do the job. The “R” behind Smith’s name was just too strong and he collected 56.34% of the votes. In the sprawling 22nd district, the counties between Goochland and Amherst, turned out the Republican voters and overcame the advantage Dodson appeared to have in his base of Lynchburg. In the end, Garrett won in a landslide getting just over 58% of the vote.
The even split came as a surprise after the GP’s original guesses. Nevertheless, now the state’s leaders have to deal with the same situation we had earlier in the century. It appears this time there’s going to be more fireworks than occurred the first time there was a 20/20 split.
The Republican Lt. Gov. and Governor have already decided there will be no “power sharing” this time around. They have it on “good authority” — i.e. A. E. Dick Howard of the University of VA — that the Lt. Gov. can vote on the organization resolution when it comes to the floor of the Senate and therefore allow the Republicans to organize the body. Wait a minute, say the Democrats, the Lt. Gov. wasn’t elected as a member of the Senate and therefore should not be allowed to participate in its organization.
The Senate Democrats to prove there point will take their argument to the courts. It appears there is a court battle royal in the works. Gosh, it seems like the state elected legislators are beginning to act like those elected to that representative body which meets in the District of Columbia.
There is precedent for power sharing. There are guidelines for it. In the opinion of a former legislator, the public isn’t going to take kindly to this type of “arrogance!” The gridlock in Washington has brought the public opinion of Congress down to an approval rating of about 9%. Is Virginia’s legislature heading in that same direction? Will the results of this power play hurt the Republicans in future elections?
The Democrats may have done a better job of redistricting the Senate than is evident by the 2011 elections. The national economy may change by 2015. If that were to happen then the voters may decide to put some of those marginal districts back into the hands of the Democrats. There are also the statewide races of 2013. The House races are probably well enough drawn that the 2013 elections won’t change the balance of membership significantly in the most numerous body. However, the statewide races are another matter. After all, a year is a long time in politics and two years an eternity.
Someone once said that people in elected positions should think about the future rather than basking in the most recent victories. At this time in Virginia’s history, perhaps the State Senate Republicans should consider doing just that.